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基于主成分分析法和正定矩阵因子分解法的洱海污染源解析

李明民, 王俊松, 和弦, 鲍智弥, 杨顺涛, 孔燕, 冯海涛, 唐诚

李明民, 王俊松, 和弦, 等. 基于主成分分析法和正定矩阵因子分解法的洱海污染源解析[J]. 云南农业大学学报(自然科学), 2025, 40(0): 1−8. DOI: 10.12101/j.issn.1004-390X(n).202405028
引用本文: 李明民, 王俊松, 和弦, 等. 基于主成分分析法和正定矩阵因子分解法的洱海污染源解析[J]. 云南农业大学学报(自然科学), 2025, 40(0): 1−8. DOI: 10.12101/j.issn.1004-390X(n).202405028
shu
LI Mingmin, WANG Junsong, HE Xian, et al. Analysis of Pollution Sources in Erhai Lake Based on Principal Component Analysis and Positive Matrix Factorization[J]. JOURNAL OF YUNNAN AGRICULTURAL UNIVERSITY（Natural Science）. DOI: 10.12101/j.issn.1004-390X(n).202405028
Citation: LI Mingmin, WANG Junsong, HE Xian, et al. Analysis of Pollution Sources in Erhai Lake Based on Principal Component Analysis and Positive Matrix Factorization[J]. JOURNAL OF YUNNAN AGRICULTURAL UNIVERSITY（Natural Science）. DOI: 10.12101/j.issn.1004-390X(n).202405028
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基于主成分分析法和正定矩阵因子分解法的洱海污染源解析

  • 1.

    云南省生态环境科学研究院，云南高原湖泊流域污染过程与管理重点实验室，云南 昆明 650034

  • 2.

    云南省生态环境科学研究院 洱海研究中心，云南 大理 671000

  • 3.

    云南农业大学 资源与环境学院，云南 昆明 650201

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金联合基金重点支持项目(U2102207)；云南省科技厅科技计划项目基础研究专项 (202401AT070307)。
详细信息
    作者简介:

    李明民(1996—)，男，云南昭通人，在读博士研究生，助理工程师，主要从事流域农业面源污染研究。E-mail：694817258@qq.com

    通信作者:

    王俊松(1982—)，男，云南昆明人，硕士，正高级工程师，主要从事水环境模型模拟研究。E-mail：junsong_wang@qq.com

摘要:
目的 

解析洱海污染物来源并量化源贡献，为流域水环境保护决策提供科学依据。

方法 

基于洱海多年水质监测数据，分析其污染特征，并使用主成分分析法(principal component analysis，PCA)和正定矩阵因子分解法(positive matrix factorization，PMF)进行污染来源及其贡献率解析。

结果 

洱海2015—2021年综合营养状态指数整体呈波动上升趋势，雨季营养状态指数显著高于旱季，9、10月处于最大值。PCA和PMF源解析结果表明：按贡献率从大到小排序，造成洱海水体污染的主要原因为农田面源、畜禽养殖、生活污水和气象因素。

结论 

洱海处于中营养状态，但整体呈现营养化趋势，污染主要集中在雨季，应当加强汛期污染防控。主要污染源为农业面源，应加强农业面源系统治理，形成“源头减量—过程拦截—养分再利用—末端修复”的全过程防控体系。其中，源头部分是重点，应当调整农业种植结构，转变农业生产方式，提高植物养分利用效率，推动流域实现农业绿色高质量发展。

 

Analysis of Pollution Sources in Erhai Lake Based on Principal Component Analysis and Positive Matrix Factorization

  • 1.

    Yunnan Key Laboratory of Pollution Process and Management of Plateau Lake-Watershed, Yunnan Research Academy of Eco-Environmental Sciences, Kunming 650034, China

  • 2.

    Erhai Research Center, Yunnan Research Academy of Eco-Environmental Sciences, Dali 671000, China

  • 3.

    College of Resources and Environment, Yunnan Agricultural University, Kunming 650201, China

Abstract:
Purpose 

To analyze the sources of pollutants in Erhai Lake and quantify their contributions, providing a scientific basis for watershed water environment protection.

Methods 

Based on the water quality monitoring data of Erhai Lake for many years, the pollution characteristics were analyzed, and the principal component analysis (PCA) and positive matrix factorization (PMF) were used to analyze the pollution sources and their contribution rates.

Results 

The comprehensive nutritional status index of Erhai Lake showed a fluctuating upward trend from 2015 to 2021. The nutritional status index in the rainy season was significantly higher than that in the dry season, and it was at the maximum in September and October. PCA and PMF source analysis results showed that the main reasons for water pollution in Erhai Lake, sorted from the highest contribution rate to the lowest, were agricultural non-point source, livestock and poultry breeding, domestic sewage and meteorological factor.

Conclusion 

Erhai Lake is in a mesotropher, but the overall trend is trophic. The pollution is mainly concentrated in rainy season, and the pollution prevention and control in the flood season should be strengthened. The main pollution source is agricultural non-point source, and the treatment of agricultural non-point source system should be strengthened to form a whole process prevention and control system of “source reduction-process interception-nutrient reuse-end restoration”. In the source section, the focus is on adjusting the agricultural planting structure, transforming the mode of agricultural production, improving the efficiency of plant nutrient utilization, and the realization of green and high-quality development of agriculture in the basin.

 

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