Measurement of China’ s Agricultural Carbon Emission Intensity and Analysis of Spatial Spillover Effects

This paper analyzed the basic status and spatial spillover effects of agricultural carbon emission intensity from the perspective of regional economics, so as to provide a certain reference for macro decision-making on agricultural carbon emission reduction and carbon sequestration. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2012 to 2021, this paper first calculated the agricultural carbon emission intensity of each province, and then used the spatial Durbin model to explore the spatial spillover effect of China’ s agricultural carbon emission intensity on adjacent regions. As a result, China’ s agricultural carbon emission intensity decreased from 0.345 in 2012 to 0.231 in 2021, a decrease of 33.01%. The analysis of influencing factors showed that, China’ s agricultural carbon emission intensity was affected by the level of agricultural economic development, urbanization and agricultural mechanization. The spatial Doberman results showed that, a 1% increase in agricultural carbon emission intensity in this region would lead to a 0.38% reduction in agricultural carbon emission intensity in adjacent areas.China’ s agricultural carbon emission intensity was generally decreasing, and the inter-provincial differences of agricultural carbon emission intensity were obvious. There was a significant spatial correlation between China’ s agricultural carbon emission intensity, which would be positively promoted by the level of agricultural economic development, while the level of urbanization and agricultural mechanization would have a negative inhibition effect on agricultural carbon emission intensity.