Predicting the Potential Geographic Distribution of Tomato brown rugose fruit virus in China Based on an Optimized MaxEnt Model

Purpose To predict the potential geographic distribution of Tomato brown rugose fruit virus (ToBRFV) in China, providing important data for the distribution, spread, monitoring, quarantine, prevention and control of it.

Methods Based on the global distribution data of ToBRFV and environmental variables screened by Pearson’s correlation analysis, the optimized MaxEnt species distribution model was applied to predict the potential geographic distribution of ToBRFV in China under the current environmental conditions, and the key environmental variables affecting the occurrence and distribution of ToBRFV were analyzed by the Jackknife test.

Results ToBRFV was distributed in all seven major geographic regions of China, but the high suitable area was mainly distributed in the southwest, the east of northwest and the south of north China; the medium suitable area was mainly distributed in the east, the central and the south China. Monthly average diurnal temperature difference (Bio2), standard deviation of seasonal temperature change (Bio4), average temperature of wettest quarter (Bio8) and average temperature of driest quarter (Bio9) were the key environmental variables affecting the occurrence and distribution of ToBRFV, with cumulative contribution rate of 84.8% and permutation importance of 89.1%, respectively.

Conclusion ToBRFV has a wide potential geographic distribution in China, and the medium- to high-suitable areas are mainly concentrated in the southern, central and eastern regions of China. Early warning and monitoring measures should be strengthened in order to prevent further spread and diffusion of ToBRFV.