Prediction of Suitable Habitat of Thelephora ganbajun in Yunnan Based on MaxEnt Model

Purpose To clarify the suitable habitat of Thelephora ganbajun in Yunnan, and to explore the effects of future climate change on the distribution and habitat suitability of this species.

Methods The dimension of soil and climate components was reduced using principal component analysis, and the selected ecological factors were input into the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to predict suitable habitat of T. ganbajun. Knife cutting method (Jackknife) and response curve were used to identify the key ecological factors and suitable threshold range influencing species distribution. ArcGIS was used to carry out spatial statistical analysis and fitness classification, and to study the changing trend of species distribution range under future climatic conditions.

Results The area under curve (AUC) of the training set and test set of the MaxEnt model was 0.884 and 0.911, respectively. Jackknife analysis showed that annual precipitation, isothermality and slope were the key factors affecting the species distribution of T. ganbajun. The distribution of the species would be affected by climate change in the future. Compared to the present, by the 21st century (2090s), under the SSP126 scenario, the suitable habitat loss and the new area of T. ganbajun in Yunnan was 1.09×10⁴ and 2.60×10³ km², respectively; under the SSP370 scenario, the loss and the new area of suitable habitats for T. ganbajun was 1.21×10⁴ km² and 5.20×10³ km², respectively.

Conclusion Future climate change will result in a reduction of the suitable area for T. ganbajun in Yunnan, with the central Yunnan region being the most severely affected by climate change.