Effects of Future Climate Change on Distribution Pattern of Camellia petelotii

Purpose To analyze and predict the species distribution of Camellia petelotii under future climate change, and to study the effects of different climate factors on the distribution, providing a theoretical basis for reasonable protection and planting.

Methods Based on 198 valid specimen records from National Plant Specimen Resource Center and online Flora of China, combined with 19 climatic factors, SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, MaxEnt model and ArcGIS v10.5 software were used to analyze the current geographical distribution and main influencing factors of C. petelotii. The geographical distribution of C. petelotii in 2050 and 2070 was analyzed, and the influence of major climate factors on suitable habitats was discussed.

Results Under the current climate, C. petelotii was mainly distributed in Guangxi and central Guangdong to coastal areas, and sporadically distributed in Yunnan, Sichuan and Guizhou. Under the future climate scenario simulated by SSP1-2.6, it was mainly distributed in Guangxi, Guangdong, Fujian, southern Guizhou and central Jiangsu, while the sporadic distribution area increased in Yunnan and Sichuan. Under the future climate scenario simulated by SSP5-8.5, it was mainly distributed in Guangxi, Guangdong, Fujian, Hainan, southeast Sichuan, southern Guizhou, central Jiangsu and western Taiwan, while it was newly scattered in southwest Xizang. It was suggested that in the future, the distribution would mainly move northward from Guangxi. Under the forecast scenario, the effect of SSP5-8.5 was obviously higher than that of SSP1-2.6. The main climatic factors affecting the geographical distribution of C. petelotii were precipitation of the driest month, annual mean temperature, mean diurnal air temperature range, and seasonal variations of precipitation.

Conclusion Under the influence of future climate, C. petelotii mainly migrates northward from the present distribution area. Based on the suitable area of C. petelotii, it will be reasonably protected and planted according to its growth habits to promote the development and utilization of resources.