Prediction Study of the Global Suitable Habitat of Brazilian Tobacco Based on MaxEnt Model

PurposeTo clarify the distribution and changes of suitable habitats of Brazilian tobacco on a global scale under current and future climatic conditions, providing a theoretical basis for the rational layout of high-quality tobacco production and sustainable tobacco development.

MethodsBased on the geographical distribution data of Brazilian tobacco and the world bioclimatic information of current and future, the suitable habitats of Brazilian tobacco on a global scale under current and future climatic conditions were predicted by MaxEnt ecological niche model and ArcGIS platform.

ResultsMaxEnt model had high accuracy with AUC values of 0.979 and 0.966 for training data and test data, respectively. Isothermality (bio3), annual precipitation (bio12), maximum temperature of warmest month (bio5) and precipitation of warmest season (bio18) were main bioclimatic variables affecting the potential distribution area of Brazilian tobacco. The global suitable habitats of Brazilian tobacco were mainly distributed in central Africa, South America, southern North America, Asia and some parts of Australia under current climate conditions. Compared with current climate conditions, the global suitable habitats of Brazilian tobacco decreased in the SSP1-2.6 scenario and increased in the SSP5-8.5 scenario under future climate conditions.

ConclusionThe global suitable habitat of Brazilian tobacco tends to migrate to lower latitudes under future climatic conditions.