Spatial and Temporal Evolution Characteristic of Ecological Sensitivity of Dianchi Lake Basin Based on CA-MC Model

Purpose To explore the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of ecological sensitivity in Dianchi Lake Basin during the past 30 years.

Methods Quantitative analysis was used for the interrelationships among ecological factors, based on remote sensing images and basic data in 1995, 2005, 2010 and 2018, and CA-MC model, migration of gravity center and kernel density estimation were applied.

Results From 1995 to 2018, the land use and cover change, riparian buffers and landscape indices sensitivities of Dianchi Lake Basin showed a fluctuating decreasing trend, and the normalized difference vegetation index sensitivity increased overall, the comprehensive ecological sensitivity of the basin showed a transformation from high to low level. The area of insensitive, low sensitive and moderate sensitive increased overall, by 2.10%, 0.47% and 11.20%, respectively; the area of high sensitive fluctuated down, decreasing by 13.77%. The center of gravity shifted and kernel density distribution of ecological sensitivity at all levels differed significantly, with the insensitive and low sensitive areas migrated to the northwest, the moderate and extremely sensitive areas migrated to the southwest, and the high sensitive areas migrated to the southeast. The spatial evolution of sensitivity in the Dianchi Lake Basin from 2018 to 2026 is deduced by the CA-MC model, and the overall sensitivity level slowly increases.

Conclusion The study of regional ecological sensitivity evolution can provide timely understanding of regional ecological evolution patterns and propose ecological protection strategies.