Geographical Distribution and Potential Distribution Area Prediction of Cephalotaxus oliveri Mast. in China

Purpose To predict the geographic distribution pattern of Cephalotaxus oliveri Mast. under different climate scenarios, providing guidance for resource protection, rational utilization and development, and laying a foundation for study of origin and geographical evolution.

Method BIOCLIM model was used to construct the current (1970-2000) and future (under CO₂ concentration doubling) geographical distribution trends, based on the information of 100 distribution points and 19 bioclimatic variables. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to analyze the main climatic factors affecting geographical distribution.

Results The vertical distribution of C. oliveri was mostly concentrated in the low altitude areas in the central subtropical region in China. The results of BIOCLIM model showed that the optimal suitable areas for C. oliveri under current climate scenario were concentrated in Hunan, Hubei, Guizhou and Chongqing. Under the future climate change scenario (CCM3), the potential distribution areas of C. oliveri should decrease with a tendency to move westward. The area under the receiver operation characteristic curve of the model was 0.911±0.023, and the prediction accuracy was high. The results of the PCA showed that temperature seasonality, temperature annual range and isothermality were the main factors limiting the geographical distribution of C. oliveri. The temperature factors played a greater role than the moisture.

Conclusion With the global warming, the suitable habitat of C. oliveri is at risk of fragmentation and loss, therefore attention should be paid to the dynamic monitoring and relocation of the species for conservation.