Study on the Method of Climate Suitability Analysis for Flue-cured Tobacco in Yuxi

PurposeTo make effective use of climate resources, the production of flue-cured tobacco is rationally arranged according to local conditions, and the climate suitability of flue-cured tobacco is divided.

Method(1) We used the ground observation data and geographic information data of Yuxi standard stations from 2009 to 2018 to select the evaluation index altitude, average temperature in July, Sunshine hours from April to September and precipitation from April to September that meet the local characteristics of Yuxi, combined climate fitness index and small grid calculation model to carry out zoning of flue-cured tobacco climate suitability. (2) We used 155 flue-cured tobacco distribution data and 23 environmental variable data, selected the same four zoning indicators and six zoning indexes selected by cutting method of MaxEnt model (maximum entropy model), combined with ArcGIS to make the flue-cured tobacco climate suitable and used ROC curve to test the validity of the model.

Result The MaxEnt simulation results were effective, and the ACU values (area under the ROC curve) of the two simulation results were 0.792 and 0.826, respectively. By comparing and analyzing the above-mentioned different methods of flue-cured tobacco climate suitability zoning results, it was found that the MaxEnt simulation results were better than the small grid calculation model results in high altitude areas, and the MaxEnt model zoning results based on six indicators were more accurate than the four indicators zoning results.

ConclusionThe small-grid calculation model and MaxEnt model can be used to analyze the climate suitability of flue-cured tobacco. The results of MaxEnt model improve the accuracy of flue-cured tobacco climate suitability zoning in the high-altitude area of Yuxi.