The Analysis of Climate Suitability and Regionalization of Actinidia deliciosa by Using MaxEnt Model in China

PurposeIn order to provide theoretical references for reasonable layout of the Actinidia deliciosa varieties of our country, the climate suitability and regionalization of A. deliciosa should be determined.

MethodIn this study, based on 21 environmental data and 275 distribution records, MaxEnt (the maximum entropy model) was used to simulate the potential distribution of A. deliciosa in China. Response curves which indicated the relationships between climatic variables and the predicted probability of presence of A. deliciosa were drew up by MaxEnt, dominant factors were chosen by Jackknife test, while receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was used to evaluate the simulation.

ResultsThe accuracy of prediction of A. deliciosa in the current period was found to be " excellent” ( \overline \textAUC =0.961) according to the evaluation criterion. Under the present climatic conditions, the potential suitable regions for A. deliciosa were mainly distributed from latitude N25° to N38°, and longitude from E96° to E122°, and occupied 336.79×10⁴ km², which were much larger than the A. deliciosa actual growing area. The highly suitable areas were in the Qinba Mountain area, east of Sichuan Bain, east of the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, Wuling Mountain-Wushan Mountian area, and the Wuyi Moutain area. The important environmental factors affecting the distribution of A. deliciosa were mean temperature in November (T_11mean), mean temperature of coldest quarter (bio11), maximum temperature in December (T_12max), maximum temperature in April (T_4max), mean temperature in February (T_2mean), and temperature seasonality (bio4).

ConclusionThe results may provide reference for A. deliciosa planting pattern and countermeasures to cope with climate change impact in China.