The Characters of Drought and Flood Disasters in Spring andthe Model to Predict the Tendency in Jiamusi Region

Purpose To investigate the evolution law of drought and flood disaster in Jiamusi region under the background of global climate change.

Method The daily precipitation data in spring of Jiamusi since 1951 and the real-time data of 74 circulation index from the National Climate Center, R_i of which is on behalf of the precipitation anomaly percentage and Z index method are used to analyze the spring drought and flood type, frequency and spatial and temporal distribution characteristic and to establish the equation of spring precipitation forecast.

Result The frequency of drought and flood catastrophe was between 72% and 96% during 1961—2015 in the city of Jiamusi. Before 1996, there was a higher frequency of drought, and the floods occurred probability of large after 1996; at the same time of annual precipitation reduction, in spring from March to May, the precipitation showed an upward trend, in the linear trend of 55 years, increased by about 9.6% each 10 years; from the geographical distribution, the western region of Jiamusi administrative division was more prone to droughts and floods and more frequent conversion than in the east; according to the above information, Minitab 16 was used to carry out relevant census that the trend of drought and flood was mainly affected by spring and winter atmospheric circulation of last year. Therefore, according to the model which is used to predict trend of spring drought and occurrence of flood, the accuracy is 63.6%.

Conclusion The results can provide a reference of disaster for short-term climate prediction in Jiamusi.