The Characters of Drought and Flood Disasters in Spring andthe Model to Predict the Tendency in Jiamusi Region

Xiaoqun WANG; Yu ZHANG; Jing LIANG; Changjiao YIN; Junfang LI; Ping ZHOU

doi:10.12101/j.issn.1004-390X(n).201705001

JOURNAL OF YUNNAN AGRICULTURAL UNIVERSITY（Natural Science） > 2018 > 33(5): 934-940. > DOI: 10.12101/j.issn.1004-390X(n).201705001

Xiaoqun WANG, Yu ZHANG, Jing LIANG, et al. The Characters of Drought and Flood Disasters in Spring andthe Model to Predict the Tendency in Jiamusi Region[J]. JOURNAL OF YUNNAN AGRICULTURAL UNIVERSITY（Natural Science）, 2018, 33(5): 934-940. DOI: 10.12101/j.issn.1004-390X(n).201705001

Citation:

PDF (801 KB)

The Characters of Drought and Flood Disasters in Spring andthe Model to Predict the Tendency in Jiamusi Region

1.
Weather Bureau of Jiamusi, Jiamusi 154004, China
2.
College of Agronomy and Biotechnology, Yunnan Agricultural University, Kunming 650201, China

More Information

Received Date: April 24, 2017
Revised Date: July 04, 2017
Available Online: October 15, 2018
Published Date: August 31, 2018

Graphical Abstract

Abstract

Abstract

Purpose To investigate the evolution law of drought and flood disaster in Jiamusi region under the background of global climate change.

Method The daily precipitation data in spring of Jiamusi since 1951 and the real-time data of 74 circulation index from the National Climate Center, R_i of which is on behalf of the precipitation anomaly percentage and Z index method are used to analyze the spring drought and flood type, frequency and spatial and temporal distribution characteristic and to establish the equation of spring precipitation forecast.

Result The frequency of drought and flood catastrophe was between 72% and 96% during 1961—2015 in the city of Jiamusi. Before 1996, there was a higher frequency of drought, and the floods occurred probability of large after 1996; at the same time of annual precipitation reduction, in spring from March to May, the precipitation showed an upward trend, in the linear trend of 55 years, increased by about 9.6% each 10 years; from the geographical distribution, the western region of Jiamusi administrative division was more prone to droughts and floods and more frequent conversion than in the east; according to the above information, Minitab 16 was used to carry out relevant census that the trend of drought and flood was mainly affected by spring and winter atmospheric circulation of last year. Therefore, according to the model which is used to predict trend of spring drought and occurrence of flood, the accuracy is 63.6%.

Conclusion The results can provide a reference of disaster for short-term climate prediction in Jiamusi.
- spring; drought and flood,
- characteristic,
- prediction model

FullText(HTML)

References (22)

References

[1]	刘毅. 极端气象灾害威胁国家安全[N]. 人民日报, 2014−12−13(10).
[2]	GROISMAN P Y, KARL T R, EASTERLING D R, et al. Changes in the probability of heavy precipitation: important indicators of climatic change[J]. Climatic Change, 1999, 42(1): 243. DOI: 10.1023/A:1005432803188.
[3]	章国材. 防御和减轻气象灾害: 2006年世界气象日主题[J]. 气象, 2006, 32(3): 3. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-252X.2006.03.002
[4]	黄荣辉, 郭其蕴, 孙安健, 等. 中国气候灾害图集[M]. 北京: 海洋出版社, 1997.
[5]	孙永贺, 张春城, 徐建民. 佳木斯市旱涝分析[J]. 黑龙江水专学报, 2005, 32(1): 30. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.2095-008X.2005.01.012
[6]	潘华盛, 刘育生. 三江平原天气气候与农业[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 1991.
[7]	陈莹, 陈兴伟. 福建省近50年旱涝时空特征演变—基于标准化降水指数分析[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2011, 20(3): 57. DOI: 10.13577/j.jnd.2011.0310
[8]	郭华, HU Q, 张奇, 等. 鄱阳湖流域水文变化特征成因及旱涝规律[J]. 地理学报, 2012, 67(5): 699
[9]	王米雪, 延军平, 李双双. 1960—2013年中国东南沿海地区旱涝时空变化特征及其趋势分析[J]. 资源科学, 2014, 36(11): 2307
[10]	韦开, 王全九, 周蓓蓓, 等. 基于降水距平百分率的陕西省干旱时空分布特征[J]. 水土保持学报, 2017, 31(1): 318. DOI: 10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2017.01.052
[11]	王艳秋, 邢俊江, 张丽娟, 等. 黑龙江省旱涝低温指标及其气候分析应用[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2008, 17(5): 142. DOI: 10.13577/j.jnd.2008.0524
[12]	蔡哲, 章毅之, 何拥凤, 等. 江西省干旱洪涝的时空变化特征分析[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2013, 22(2): 144. DOI: 10.13577/j.jnd.2013.0220
[13]	郑红, 王艳秋, 郑凯, 等. 黑龙江省夏季旱涝低温灾害风险区划[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2010, 19(2): 131. DOI: 10.13577/j.jnd.2010.0221
[14]	郑祖国, 郑海燕. 影响浙江降水的大气环流主要因子筛选研究[J]. 新疆农业大学学报, 2012, 35(3): 249. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-8614.2012.03.015
[15]	杨金虎, 孙兰东, 林婧婧, 等. 1961—2012年盛夏持续性旱涝异常分析及预测[J]. 资源科学, 2015, 37(10): 2078
[16]	杨晓静, 徐宗学, 左德鹏, 等. 东北三省近55a旱涝时空演变特征[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2016, 25(4): 9. DOI: 10.13577/j.jnd.2016.0402
[17]	韩晓敏, 延军平. 气候暖干化背景下东北地区旱涝时空演变特征[J]. 水土保持通报, 2015, 35(4): 314. DOI: 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2015.04.055
[18]	高永刚, 顾红, 姬菊枝, 等. 近43年来黑龙江气候变化对农作物产量影响的模拟研究[J]. 应用气象学报, 2007, 18(4): 532. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-7313.2007.04.014
[19]	丁一汇, 张莉. 青藏高原与中国其他地区气候突变时间的比较[J]. 大气科学, 2008, 32(4): 794. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2008.04.08
[20]	葛旭阳. 投影寻踪回归方法在长江三角洲地区降水量预报中的应用[J]. 气象科学, 2002, 22(1): 88. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-0827.2002.01.011
[21]	杨永生, 何平. 投影寻踪回归与BP神经网络方法在前汛期降水预测中的比较研究[J]. 气象与环境学报, 2008, 24(1): 14. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2008.01.004
[22]	郭皓, 邢贞相, 付强, 等. 基于密度参数K-均值算法的RBF网络及其在降水量预测中的应用[J]. 水土保持研究, 2014, 21(6): 299. DOI: 10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2014.06.056

Cited By

Get Citation

PDF

XML

Article views (1523) PDF downloads (14)

Turn off MathJax

Article Contents

Abstract

References

The Characters of Drought and Flood Disasters in Spring andthe Model to Predict the Tendency in Jiamusi Region

Abstract

References

Catalog

Export File

Citation

Format

Content