Supply Gap Analysis of Yunnan Rapeseed Oil and Its Demand Forecast

The rapeseed oil supply and demand situation of Yunnan province is analyzed, which indicates that the current rapeseed oil self-sufficiency rate is nearly 50%, the influence factors of rapeseed oil supply gap is mainly caused by increasing population, accelerating urbanization, higher living standards, improving consumption structure and shortage of rapeseed oil production due to less rapeseed output. And then based on Logistic Block Growth Model(LBGM), the authors forecast the future population trend and the future consumption demand for rapeseed oil in Yunnan province, the results show that the upper limit of the future population of Yunnan province is 55.74 million, up to 2020, the population is 49.14 million, the demand of rapeseed oil approaches 600 000 tons, which means the future supply gap will be up to two times of self-sufficiency level. Finally, in order to guarantee edible oil supply security of Yunnan province, the authors propose such measures as expanding the acreage of rapeseed crop and fully tapping production potential, guiding residents to establish a correct concept of consumption and advocating rational and healthy consumption, and taking full advantage of outside edible oil markets to establish and improve the edible oil reserve system.