Measurement, Regional Differences and Dynamic Evolution of the High-quality Development Level of Under-forest Economy

Promoting the high-quality development of the under-forest economy is a crucial approach to realizing the value transformation of ecological products and rural revitalization. Based on data from 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities in China from 2019 to 2023, this paper employed the entropy method, Dagum Gini coefficient, global Moran’ s I index, kernel density estimation, and Markov chain model to measure the level of high-quality development of the under-forest economy. It revealed the sources of regional disparities, spatial agglomeration characteristics, and dynamic evolution patterns. The study found that the overall level of high-quality development of the under-forest economy showed a fluctuating upward trend, but there was significant inter-regional imbalance. The level of high-quality development of the under-forest economy in each province exhibited positive spatial correlation and continued to strengthen. The dynamic evolution showed that the distribution pattern had a main peak shifting to the right and a longer right tail, indicating a trend of “leader expansion” . The level of high-quality development of the under-forest economy remained relatively stable within each level, posing a risk of club convergence characterized by “low-level lock-in” and “high-level solidification” . Therefore, policy recommendations such as breaking spatial lock-in and establishing cross-regional collaboration mechanisms were proposed.