Research on the Trade Influencing Factors of Yunnan Vegetables Going Global in Six ASEAN Countries: An Empirical Analysis Based on the Trade Gravity Model

Based on an improved trade gravity model, this study empirically analyzed the influencing factors and trade potential of Yunnan Province’ s vegetable exports to the six ASEAN countries (Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand, Singapore, Laos, and Cambodia) from 2016 to 2023. The research found that the scale of Yunnan’ s vegetable industry has continued to expand, but its exports have shown a fluctuating downward trend. In 2023, the export value dropped to 593 million US dollars, and its share of the national total declined to 5.67%. The empirical results indicated that the growth of Yunnan’ s GDP and the population base of the trading countries have a significant positive driving effect on vegetable exports, while geographical distance inhibits trade development through transportation costs. Additionally, the COVID-19 pandemic has had a short-term negative impact on exports through supply chain disruptions. The analysis of trade efficiency and potential further revealed significant heterogeneity among the target markets: Vietnam is the only “potential-exploiting” market among the six countries, with relatively the best export performance; while Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Laos, and Cambodia all belong to the “potential-huge” markets, suggesting that the overall efficiency of Yunnan’ s vegetable exports is relatively low and there is huge room for improvement. To enhance the competitiveness of Yunnan’ s vegetable exports, it is recommended to strengthen cross-border infrastructure connectivity, promote strategic and policy alignment based on the above market classification, and implement precise development strategies for different types of markets, so as to fully unleash the export potential of Yunnan’ s vegetables and provide policy references for the high-quality development of China-ASEAN agricultural product trade.