Study on the Influence and Spillover Effect of Carbon Emissions Trading on Agricultural Green Total Factor Productivity

Under the guidance of the “dual carbon” strategic goal, China’ s agricultural green transformation development has been made positive progress. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces from China between 2000 to 2022, this paper used EBM-GML method to estimate the agricultural green total factor productivity (AGTFP) firstly, and then tested its spatial correlation with the Moran index. More attention has been further paid to the spillover effects of the implementation of carbon emission trading policy on AGTFP with the perspective of spatial analysis on agricultural carbon emissions by Difference-in-Difference Estimation. The results showed that: (1) AGTFP continued to increase during the study period, and agricultural technology progress was the main driving force of agricultural green development; (2) The implementation of the carbon emission trading policy could promote the AGTFP in the pilot area, and had a significant positive spatial spillover effect on neighboring areas; (3) Agricultural planting structure, economic development level, urbanization level and innovation level could promote the growth of AGTFP, but innovation level had a negative spatial spillover effect on neighboring regions, and agricultural mechanization level and industrialization level could inhibit the growth of AGTFP. The results could provide useful theoretical reference and empirical evidence for realizing the dual goals of sustained rapid growth of agricultural economy and green development of agriculture in China.