Study on Spatio-temporal Synergy between Ecosystem Service Value and Landscape Ecological Risk in Anhui Province

Mapping the value of ecosystem services and scientifically preventing and managing ecological risks can provide theoretical support for guaranteeing green and sustainable development in the context of the “two mountains” policy, and give the idea of transforming the “contradiction” between people and land into “harmony” . In view of the outstanding economic growth in Anhui Province in the past 20 years, the contradiction between people and land had been highlighted, so we took Anhui Province as the study area, constructed ecosystem service value and landscape ecological risk evaluation model based on the land use data from 2000 to 2020, comprehensively utilized the spatial correlation analysis, geographically-weighted regression and geographic detector and other research methods, explored the spatial and temporal evolution trend and spatial influence relationship between ecosystem service value and landscape ecological risk in Anhui Province. The results showed that: (1) The value of ecosystem services in Anhui Province declined significantly during the 20 years, with higher values in watersheds and mountainous areas, lower values for cultivated land in the central and northern parts of the province, and a gradual improvement in landscape ecological risks during the 20 years. (2) The Moran’ s index of ESV and ERI in the study area was significantly reduced, with fewer areas of high-high and low-high aggregation, and the radicalization of ERI by ESV was significantly attenuated. (3) Natural and social factors can both significantly drive ESV, while ERI is primarily driven by natural factors. The study showed that, ecosystem stability had a significant effect on the relationship between ESV and ERI. In the future, we should continue to protect the forest land in the southern mountainous areas, focus on the management of the ecological environment of the waters within the territory, enhance the wholeness of the grassland landscape, and scientifically demarcate the development boundary of cities and towns, so as to enhance the stability of the ecosystem in Anhui Province.