Agricultural Carbon Emissions in Hubei Province and County-level Carbon Emission Research Based on K-means Clustering Algorithm

Based on the relevant agricultural data in Hubei Province from 2011 to 2020, the IPCC carbon emission coefficient method was used to measure the agricultural carbon emission in Hubei Province. The index divided 73 county units in Hubei Province into “emission-efficiency” types, and analyzed the carbon emissions of each cluster in combination with the total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and by-fishing. The research results show that: the total agricultural carbon emission in Hubei Province showed a downward trend as a whole, but it was accompanied by a certain inter-annual fluctuation. According to the characteristics of the fluctuation, it could be roughly classified into three stages: “continuously rising-smoothly rising-continuously decreasing” , and the overall carbon emission intensity presented declining trend; 73 county units were divided into 8 different regions based on differences in carbon emission composition. Compared with low-emission areas, high-emission areas contributed more to carbon emissions, and there was a positive correlation between the scale of carbon emissions and the total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and by-fishing; compared with the base period, HE-LE (High Emission-Low Efficiency) counties number of units had decreased; HE-LE (High Emission-Low Efficiency) areas represented by Hong'an County, Anlu City, and Shayang County were the heavy emission areas of agricultural carbon emissions in Hubei Province, and corresponding agricultural carbon emission reductions were implemented. The measures would contribute to the achievement of emission reduction targets.