Spatio-temporal Evolution of Habitat Quality in the Xin’ an River Basin and Multi-scenario Prediction

Based on the land use/cover data of the Xin’ an River Basin in 2000, 2010 and 2018, the InVEST model and the CA-Markov model were used to analyze the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of habitat mass in the basin from 2000 to 2018, and to predict the spatial pattern and habitat quality of the land in the Xin’ an River Basin in 2030. The results show that: （1） From 2000 to 2018, the dominant land types in the Xin’ an River Basin were forest land and cultivated land; with the rapid advancement of the urbanization process, the urban boundary was continuously extended, and the increase in construction land was as high as 192.66%, mainly by the inflow of forest land and cultivated land. （2） From 2000 to 2018, the high-value area of habitat quality in the Xin’ an River Basin was concentrated in the central woodland, the low-value area was concentrated in the urban area of cities and counties, and the quality level of habitat was mainly excellent; the overall quality of habitat was degraded, and the area of habitat quality grade transfer was 436.44 km², the area of reduced grade was 324.85 km², and the area of area with improved grade was 111.59 km². （3） Between 2018 and 2030, the temporal and spatial evolution of land use types and habitat quality in the Xin’ an River Basin was basically consistent with the evolution trend of 2000—2018. Under the three scenarios, the sequence of the average habitat quality index is: the ecological priority scenario, the natural growth scenario, the economic development scenario. Controlling the scale of land for construction in the area is crucial to maintaining the stability of the ecosystem.