Purpose The aim of this study was to simulate and predict the global potential suitable areas of Ophiocordyceps sinensis under current and future climate scenarios.
Methods A total of 494 distribution points of O. sinensis were obtained through field and literature research. The MaxEnt model was optimized using the ENMeval data package in R language to determine the distribution areas and key environmental factors of O. sinensis, and to predict changes in its suitable areas under two future climate change scenarios.
Results There were six main factors that affected the distribution of O. sinensis, namely elevation (Elev, contribution rate was 44.0%), max temperature of warmest month (Bio5, contribution rate was 18.0%), precipitation of warmest quarter (Bio18, contribution rate was 17.3%), human footprint data (Hfd, contribution rate was 6.7%), isothermality (Bio3, contribution rate was 6.6%), and protected area (PA, contribution rate was 3.7%). The suitable habitats were predominantly located on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in China, encompassing Xizang, Qinghai, Sichuan, Yunnan, and Gansu. Climate change and human activities were projected to exert substantial negative impacts on these high suitable areas. The continued contraction of high-suitability habitats might lead to a decline in O. sinensis populations, thereby affecting its ecological functions and economic value.
Conclusion The optimal elevation for wild cultivation of O. sinensis is 3143.60-4682.59 m, Bio5 is −7.89-19.19 ℃, Bio18 is 226.73-419.82 mm, Bio3 is 36.73-47.93, and almost all protected areas in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are suitable for the growth of O. sinensis. Climate change and human activities interference will affect the distribution of suitable areas for O. sinensis. In the future, it is necessary to enhance the protection and sustainable management of O. sinensis.
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