张晓彤, 张立新. 中国城镇化进程概述和未来城镇化水平预测[J]. 云南农业大学学报(社会科学), 2021, 15(1): 20-25. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-390X(s).202004050
引用本文: 张晓彤, 张立新. 中国城镇化进程概述和未来城镇化水平预测[J]. 云南农业大学学报(社会科学), 2021, 15(1): 20-25. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-390X(s).202004050
ZHANG Xiaotong, ZHANG Lixin. An Overview of China’ s Urbanization Policies over the Years and Forecast of Future Urbanization Levels[J]. Journal of Yunnan Agricultural University (Social Science), 2021, 15(1): 20-25. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-390X(s).202004050
Citation: ZHANG Xiaotong, ZHANG Lixin. An Overview of China’ s Urbanization Policies over the Years and Forecast of Future Urbanization Levels[J]. Journal of Yunnan Agricultural University (Social Science), 2021, 15(1): 20-25. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-390X(s).202004050

中国城镇化进程概述和未来城镇化水平预测

An Overview of China’ s Urbanization Policies over the Years and Forecast of Future Urbanization Levels

  • 摘要: 整理中国从1949—2015年的城镇化率数据,应用诺瑟姆曲线和时间序列法相结合的方式进行计算分析。结果显示:中国的城镇化率将以每年大约1个百分点的速度上升,在2030年达到70%左右。研究了中国从改革开放前一直到21世纪,不同时期有关城镇化发展的不同政策,随着中国城镇化的发展,相关的政策也在进行不断地调整和完善。结合城镇化率的计算结果和相关政策梳理,对中国城镇化道路的发展提出了建议。

     

    Abstract: Based on the intuitive expression of “northam curve”and relevant data analysis, this paper estimated that China’ s urbanization rate will be promoted at the rate of about 1 percentage point per year, and reach about 70% in 2030. It also studied China’ s policies on urbanization development in different periods from before the reform and opening up to the 21st century. With the development of China’ s urbanization, relevant policies were being adjusted and improved continuously. Finally, four Suggestions were put forward for the development of China’ s urbanization road.

     

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