基于动态贝叶斯网络的云南农业高质量发展动态依赖结构与传导路径研究

A Study on the Dynamic Dependency Structure and Transmission Pathways of High-quality Agricultural Development in Yunnan Based on Dynamic Bayesian Networks

  • 摘要: 依托沿边开放、兴边富民等多重政策叠加优势,云南省农业进入高质量发展的关键转型期。为厘清云南农业发展要素的相互作用关系、跨期传导逻辑与动态演化特征,本文以2016—2023年云南省16个州市数据为研究样本,运用动态贝叶斯网络模型识别农业高质量发展影响因素的动态结构。研究结果表明:(1)云南省农业高质量发展系统仅有关键变量在跨期传导中发挥主导作用。其中,农业劳动生产率、土地生产率、农作物耕种收综合机械化率和农产品市场成交额占比是系统中最重要的动态驱动因素。(2)关键变量之间存在明显的状态依赖特征,生产效率和市场联通状态的变化与后续资源利用、生态环境及共享发展状态之间具有较强的动态关联。(3)云南农业高质量发展的演化主要表现为“技术—效率—绿色转型”“市场联通—资源优化”和“效率—生态—福利改善”三类跨维度传播机制,表明农业高质量发展并非由单一维度独立推动,而是由技术效率、市场化水平、资源环境绩效和民生共享四维度间的跨期相互作用形成。据此,提出强化农业生产效率提升的基础条件、推动绿色生产从约束治理转向价值转化、提升特色农业产业链组织能力等政策建议。

     

    Abstract: Leveraging the overlapping advantages of multiple policies, including opening-up along the border and revitalizing border regions to benefit local populations, Agriculture in Yunnan Province has entered a critical transition period toward high-quality development. To clarify the interrelationships among the factors influencing agricultural development in Yunnan, their intertemporal transmission logic, and dynamic evolutionary characteristics, this paper used data from 16 prefectures and cities in Yunnan Province from 2016 to 2023 as the research sample and employed a dynamic Bayesian network model to identify the dynamic structure of the factors influencing high-quality agricultural development. The results indicated that: (1) The only key variables in Yunnan high-quality agricultural development system played a dominant role in intertemporal transmission. Among them, agricultural labor productivity, land productivity, the comprehensive mechanization rate of crop cultivation, planting, and harvesting, and the share of agricultural product market turnover were the most important dynamic drivers within the system. (2) There was a distinct state-dependent characteristics among the key variables, with changes in production efficiency and market connectivity states exhibiting strong dynamic association with subsequent states of resource utilization, ecological environment, and shared development. (3) The evolution of Yunnan high-quality agricultural development primarily manifested in three types of cross-dimensional transmission mechanisms: “technology-efficiency-green transition”, “market connectivity-resource optimization”, and “efficiency-ecology-welfare improvement”, indicating that high-quality agricultural development was not driven independently by a single dimension, but rather shaped by intertemporal interactions among four dimensions of technological efficiency, marketization level, resource-environmental performance, and livelihood-sharing. Accordingly, policy recommendations are proposed, including strengthening the foundational conditions for improving agricultural production efficiency, shifting green production from constraint-based governance to value conversion, and enhancing the organizational capacity of the specialty agricultural industry chain.

     

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