Abstract:
Based on the panel data of the eight ASEAN countries (Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, Cambodia, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines) from 2015 to 2023, this study utilized the entropy method to assess the development level of digital trade within ASEAN. It further explored the impact mechanism of ASEAN digital trade development on Yunnan’s agricultural exports through the fixed-effects model, moderating-effects model, and threshold regression model. The results showed that: ASEAN digital trade was generally experiencing robust growth, yet with notable country-specific heterogeneity; ASEAN digital trade development significantly boosted Yunnan’s agricultural exports. However, owing to the moderating influence of geographical distance, the larger the geographical distance, the weaker the promotional effect of ASEAN digital trade on Yunnan’s agricultural exports. Influenced by a single-threshold effect of economic distance, the impact shifted from negative to positive after crossing the threshold value. Concurrently, in ASEAN countries with higher levels of digital trade, those bordering Yunnan, and those serving as core export markets for Yunnan’s agricultural products, their digital trade development exhibited a more positive promoting effect on Yunnan’s agricultural exports. It is recommended to deepen engagement in core markets, explore potential markets, strengthening brand building, and fully leverage the advantages of Yunnan as a radiation center for South and Southeast Asia, so as to further enhance Yunnan-ASEAN agricultural trade cooperation and solidly advance Yunnan’s high-level agricultural opening-up to the outside world.