东盟数字贸易对云南农产品出口的影响研究

Research on the Impact of ASEAN Digital Trade on Yunnan’s Agricultural Exports

  • 摘要: 研究基于2015—2023年东盟八国(越南、老挝、缅甸、柬埔寨、泰国、马来西亚、印度尼西亚、菲律宾)数据,采用墒值法测算东盟数字贸易发展水平,并通过固定效应模型、调节效应模型和门槛回归模型考察东盟数字贸易发展对云南农产品出口的影响机制。结果表明:东盟数字贸易总体呈蓬勃发展态势,但国别异质性明显;东盟数字贸易发展对云南农产品出口有显著促进作用;但由于受到地理距离调节效应影响,地理距离越大,东盟数字贸易对云南农产品出口的促进效果越弱;受到经济距离单一门槛效应影响,其影响作用在跨越门槛值后由负转正;同时,在高数字贸易水平、与云南接壤、为云南农产品核心出口市场的东盟国家,其数字贸易发展对云南农产品出口展现出更积极的促进作用。建议通过深耕核心市场、开拓潜力市场、强化品牌建设,充分发挥南亚东南亚辐射中心优势,进一步加强云南—东盟农产品贸易合作,扎实推进云南高水平农业对外开放。

     

    Abstract: Based on the panel data of the eight ASEAN countries (Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, Cambodia, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines) from 2015 to 2023, this study utilized the entropy method to assess the development level of digital trade within ASEAN. It further explored the impact mechanism of ASEAN digital trade development on Yunnan’s agricultural exports through the fixed-effects model, moderating-effects model, and threshold regression model. The results showed that: ASEAN digital trade was generally experiencing robust growth, yet with notable country-specific heterogeneity; ASEAN digital trade development significantly boosted Yunnan’s agricultural exports. However, owing to the moderating influence of geographical distance, the larger the geographical distance, the weaker the promotional effect of ASEAN digital trade on Yunnan’s agricultural exports. Influenced by a single-threshold effect of economic distance, the impact shifted from negative to positive after crossing the threshold value. Concurrently, in ASEAN countries with higher levels of digital trade, those bordering Yunnan, and those serving as core export markets for Yunnan’s agricultural products, their digital trade development exhibited a more positive promoting effect on Yunnan’s agricultural exports. It is recommended to deepen engagement in core markets, explore potential markets, strengthening brand building, and fully leverage the advantages of Yunnan as a radiation center for South and Southeast Asia, so as to further enhance Yunnan-ASEAN agricultural trade cooperation and solidly advance Yunnan’s high-level agricultural opening-up to the outside world.

     

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