CAFTA框架下中国—东盟咖啡贸易网络演化及影响因素分析

Analysis of the Evolution and Determinants of the China-ASEAN Coffee Trade Network Under the CAFTA Framework

  • 摘要: 在中国—东盟自贸区建设升级和全球咖啡消费市场扩容的双重驱动下,中国—东盟咖啡贸易对区域经济发展的战略支撑作用日益凸显。本文基于UN Comtrade数据库2014—2024年中国与东盟国家咖啡贸易数据,运用社会网络分析法(SNA)和二次指派程序法(QAP),研究中国—东盟咖啡贸易网络演化及影响因素。研究表明:(1)从网络结构来看,中国、越南、新加坡、泰国均处于贸易网络的核心地位。(2)从整体特征来看,中国—东盟咖啡贸易网络联系紧密,连通性较强,“孤岛”效应基本消除,呈现典型“小世界”特征,双向互惠贸易关系占据主导。(3)从节点特征来看,新加坡、印度尼西亚、越南等处于网络核心辐射位置,承担关键连接功能;中国在区域咖啡贸易中的参与度与影响力持续提升,发挥桥梁作用。(4)从影响因素来看,经济规模、地理毗邻、咖啡消费量、咖啡生产量对中国—东盟咖啡贸易起促进作用,人口规模、关税税率起抑制作用。基于此,提出锚定核心贸易地位,打造多元贸易体系;深化区域贸易联动,构建双向互惠格局;拓宽跨境流通网络,引领区域规则制定;推动全链协同布局,提升产业国际话语权等对策建议。

     

    Abstract: Driven by the dual factors of the upgrading of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area and the expansion of the global coffee consumption market, the strategic supporting role of China-ASEAN coffee trade in regional economic development has become increasingly prominent. Based on the coffee trade data between China and ASEAN countries from 2014 to 2024 extracted from the UN Comtrade database, this paper employed social network analysis (SNA) and the quadratic assignment procedure (QAP) to examine the evolution of the China-ASEAN coffee trade network and its influencing factors. The findings indicated that: (1) In terms of network structure, China, Vietnam, Singapore, and Thailand occupied core positions in the trade network. (2) At the overall network level, the China-ASEAN coffee trade network was tightly connected with strong connectivity, with the “island” effect largely eliminated, exhibiting typical “small-world” characteristics and dominated by reciprocal bilateral trade relationships. (3) In terms of nodal characteristics, Singapore, Indonesia, and Vietnam occupied central hub positions in the network and served as key bridging functions; China’s participation and influence in regional coffee trade had steadily increased, playing an intermediary role. (4) Regarding influencing factors, economic scale, geographical proximity, coffee consumption, and coffee production positively facilitated China–ASEAN coffee trade, while population size and tariff rates exerted suppressing effect. Based on these findings, this paper proposes policy recommendations including anchoring core trade status and build a diversified trade system, deepening regional trade linkages and establishing a mutually beneficial two-way pattern, expanding cross-border circulation networks and taking the lead in formulating regional rules, and facilitating coordinated layout across the entire industrial chain and elevating the international discourse power of industries.

     

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