新型城镇化视角下农村劳动力跨区域变迁及影响因素基于CSS数据实证

Rural Labor Cross-regional Migration and Its Influencing Factors of from the Perspective of New Urbanization: An Empirical Analysis Based on CSS Data

  • 摘要: 在新型城镇化持续推进和县域就业承接功能增强的背景下,农村劳动力跨地域流动正由传统外出务工转向多层级空间选择。为揭示农村劳动力跨地域流动半径的扩展特征,分析其在本乡镇、县域内、省内跨县和跨省流动之间形成差异化空间选择的影响因素,本文基于中国社会状况综合调查(CSS)2011、2013、2015、2021和2023年数据,构建农村劳动力跨地域流动层级指标,将其划分为本乡镇就业、县域内流动、省内跨县流动和跨省流动四个层级,并结合省级统计资料描述流动环境变化,采用有序Logit模型考察个体特征、非农就业经历和家庭约束对流动层级的影响。研究发现:研究期内的农村劳动力跨地域流动总体上升,本乡镇就业占比下降,县域内、省内跨县和跨省流动均有所增加,流动半径呈由近及远的扩展趋势;受教育年限和非农就业显著提高进入更高流动层级的概率,年龄和婚姻状况形成约束;教育和非农就业对男性流动层级提升作用更明显,婚姻对女性流动的抑制更强。据此,应提升农村劳动力教育培训水平,增强县域非农就业承载能力,完善跨区域公共服务衔接机制,提高流动质量与就业稳定性。

     

    Abstract: Against the background of the continued advancement of new urbanization and the growing of county-level employment absorption functions, the cross-regional mobility of rural labor is shifting from traditional out-migration for work to multi-tiered spatial choices. To reveal the expansion characteristics of the cross-regional mobility radius of rural labor and to identify the factors that drive differentiated spatial choices among mobility within the home township, within the county, across counties within the province, and across provinces, this paper constructed a hierarchical indicator of cross-regional mobility for rural labor using data from the Chinese Social Survey (CSS) for 2011, 2013, 2015, 2021, and 2023. The indicator classified mobility into four categories: employment within the home township, mobility within county, inter-county mobility within the province, and inter-provincial mobility. Drawing on provincial-level statistical data to describe changes in the mobility environment, the study employed an ordered Logit model to examine the effects of individual characteristics, non-agricultural employment experience, and household constraints on the mobility level. The results showed that, over the study period, overall cross-regional mobility of rural labor had increased, with the share of employment within the home township declining, while intra-county, inter-county within-province, and inter-provincial mobility all had risen, indicating an expanding radius of the mobility from proximal to distal. Years of education and non-agricultural employment significantly increased the probability of moving to higher mobility levels, whereas age and marital status acted as constrains. exerted a greater inhibiting effect on female mobility. Education and non-agricultural employment had a stronger effect on promoting mobility levels for males, while marriage had a stronger restraining effect on female mobility. Accordingly, policy efforts should focus on improving education and training for rural labor, enhancing the non-agricultural employment capacity of county-level areas, refining cross-regional public service coordination mechanisms, and improving mobility quality and employment stability.

     

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