普惠金融高质量发展与乡村产业振兴耦合协调研究基于安徽16地市的经验证据

Research on the Coupling and Coordination between High Quality Development of Inclusive Finance and Rural Industrial Revitalization: Based on the Empirical Evidence of 16 Cities in Anhui

  • 摘要: 推动普惠金融高质量发展与乡村产业振兴耦合协调发展是激发农村经济活力、促进共同富裕的重要手段。本文基于普惠金融高质量发展与乡村产业振兴耦合机制,构建其耦合协调评价体系,借助安徽16个地市2014—2024年数据,运用耦合协调模型、空间计量模型、障碍度模型就二者耦合协调度及其影响因素展开实证研究。结果显示:(1)普惠金融高质量发展与乡村产业振兴的耦合协调度整体水平仍尚低,但在时间维度上呈稳定上升态势,且受普惠金融高质量发展影响较大;(2)空间维度上呈“南高北低”“南快北慢”分异格局,且显著正向空间自相关;(3)影响因素方面,交通设施网络、财政支农均有显著促进作用,且前者影响更为显著,直接效应大于间接效应;(4)障碍因子方面,普惠金融高质量发展障碍核心在于普惠金融覆盖率与数字化程度,乡村产业振兴障碍主要表现为非农产业占比、农产品电商渠道渗透率、农业机械化水平,其作用强度具有区域动态差异性。据此,应进一步深化场景融合创新,聚焦地区数字普惠金融发展短板优化布局,强化乡村产业链发展薄弱节点精准施策。

     

    Abstract: Promoting the coordinated development of high-quality inclusive finance and rural industrial revitalization is an important means of stimulating rural economic vitality and promoting common prosperity. Based on the coupling mechanism between high-quality development of inclusive finance and rural industrial revitalization, this study constructed an evaluation system for their coupling coordination. Using data from 16 prefecture-level cities in Anhui Province from 2014 to 2024, and employing the coupling coordination model, spatial econometric model, and obstacle degree model, an empirical research of the coupling coordination degree and its influencing factors was conducted. The results showed that: (1) The overall level of coupling coordination between high-quality inclusive finance and rural industrial revitalization remained relatively low, but showed a stable upward trend over time, with a great influence from the development of high-quality inclusive finance. (2) Spatially, the pattern showed “high in the south, low in the north” and “faster in the south. slower in the north” differentiation, with significant positive spatial autocorrelation. (3) In terms of influencing factors, both transportation infrastructure and fiscal support for agriculture had significant promoting effects, with the former being more pronounced; the direct effect was greater than the indirect effect. (4) Regarding obstacle factors, the core obstacles to high-quality inclusive finance development lied in the coverage of inclusive finance and the degree of digitalization, while the obstacles to rural industrial revitalization were mainly the proportion of non-agricultural industries, the penetration rate of e-commerce channels for agricultural products, and the level of agricultural mechanization, with regional variations in the intensity of these effects. Accordingly, further efforts should be made to deepen integrated scenario innovation, optimize the layout by focusing on regional shortcomings in digital inclusive finance, and strengthen targeted policies at weak links in the development of rural industrial chains.

     

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