新质生产力视角下中国肉牛产业高质量发展水平研究:时空演变、区域差异与影响因素分析

Research on the High-quality Development of China’s Beef Cattle Industry from the Perspective of New Quality Productivity: Spatiotemporal Evolution, Regional Disparities, and Influencing Factors

  • 摘要: 探究新质生产力视角下中国肉牛产业高质量发展水平的时空演化与区域差异,对推动肉牛产业纾困、保障大食物观下国家粮食安全具有重要意义。本文基于2014—2023年中国省级面板数据,从投入质量、生产活力、产出效能三个维度构建新质生产力视角下肉牛高质量发展水平评价指标体系,运用博弈论组合赋权、TOPSIS-VIKOR联用模型、Dagum基尼系数分解法、莫兰指数法、空间条件下的核密度估计和空间杜宾模型分析各省份肉牛产业高质量发展水平、时空演化特征和影响因素。结果显示:考察期内中国肉牛产业高质量发展水平持续上升,总体呈“北高南低、西高东低”的格局,形成“吉林—青海”北方农牧带高水平集群;各省份肉牛产业新质生产力总体上处于培育和发展阶段,未全面转化为经济、生态和社会效益的协同提升;中国肉牛产业高质量发展水平总体差异下降,主要贡献由超变密度转向区域间差异;产业发展的空间溢出效应存在显著阈值和时间窗口,低水平地区易面临“低端锁定”风险,高水平地区发展水平存在阶段性发展上限。人力资本基础、财政支农力度和对外开放程度对肉牛产业高质量发展存在显著影响。鉴此,建议肉牛产业相关政策关注的重心应转向要素的转化效率,构建常态化的跨区域协作机制以延长空间溢出效应的有效窗口,助力肉牛产业高质量发展。

     

    Abstract: Investigating the spatiotemporal evolution and regional disparities in the level of high-quality development of China’s beef cattle industry from the perspective of new quality productivity is of great significance for alleviating difficulties in the beef cattle sector and safeguarding national food security under the Greater Food approach. Based on the provincial panel data for China from 2014 to 2023, this study constructed an evaluation index system for the high-quality development level of the beef cattle industry from the perspective of new quality productivity, covering three dimensions: input quality, production vitality, and output efficiency. It then employed a game-theory-based combined weighting method, an integrated TOPSIS–VIKOR model, Dagum Gini coefficient decomposition, Moran’s index, spatial kernel density estimation, and a spatial Durbin model to examine the high-quality development level, spatiotemporal evolution characteristics, and influencing factors of the beef cattle industry across provinces. The results showed that during the study period, the high-quality development level of China’s beef cattle industry increased steadily, displaying an overall spatial pattern characterized by “higher in the north than in the south, and higher in the west than in the east”, with a high-level cluster emerging along the northern agro-pastoral belt from Jilin to Qinghai. The new quality productive forces of the beef cattle industry across provinces generally remained at the stage of cultivation and development and have not yet been fully transformed into the coordinated improvement of economic, ecological, and social benefits. Overall disparities in the high-quality development level of China’s beef cattle industry have declined, while the dominant source of disparity has shifted from hypervariable density to interregional differences. The spatial spillover effects of high-quality development in the beef cattle industry exhibited significant thresholds and time windows: low-level regions were prone to the risk of “low-end lock-in”, whereas high-level regions face stage-specific ceilings in their development level. Human capital endowment, the intensity of fiscal support for agriculture, and the degree of openness to the outside world exerted significant effects on the high-quality development of the beef cattle industry. In view of this, it is recommended that the policy focus for the beef cattle industry should shift toward the conversion efficiency of production factors, and that a normalized cross-regional coordination mechanism be established to extend the effective window of spatial spillover effects, thereby facilitating the high-quality development of the beef cattle industry.

     

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