“双碳”目标下REDD+机制的农牧户参与行为测度与影响机制研究

Research on the Measurement of Participation Behavior of Farmers and Herders in REDD+ Mechanism and Its Impact Mechanisms under the “Dual Carbon” Goals

  • 摘要: REDD+旨在推动发展中国家减少因毁林与森林退化导致的碳排放,并且通过森林保护与可持续管理实现森林碳汇的增加,是应对气候变化的重要政策工具。本文基于内蒙古准格尔旗和杭锦旗的调研数据,通过倾向匹配得分法、模糊综合评判法、Logistic回归模型、OLS回归和调节效应,测度REDD+机制农牧户参与度并分析其参与意愿的影响因素,进而讨论农牧户参与度对退耕面积的影响机制。结果表明:提高REDD+资金支持水平对增加农牧户退耕面积有正向作用,不同农牧户的参与度差异显著;年龄和坡度25°以上耕地占比对农牧户参与度及退耕面积均有正向作用,从事农业经营活动和耕地距公路最远距离对两者均有负向作用;村干部和率先退耕示范者对他人意愿影响因素具有促进作用,受教育程度则起到抑制作用。上述发现为REDD+机制揭示环境、经济与居民福祉间的联系与规律提供了实证依据,为国家制定REDD+行动战略提供路径选择。据此,应充分重视农牧户在减排增汇行动中的主体作用,健全其参与机制,完善REDD+后续产业体系,以更好服务国家“双碳”战略和高质量发展大局。

     

    Abstract: REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation plus conservation, sustainable management of forests, and enhancement of forest carbon stocks) aims to encourage developing countries to reduce carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, and to increase forest carbon sinks through forest conservation and sustainable management, serving as an important policy tool for addressing climate change. Based on survey data from Zhungeer Banner and Hangjin Banner in Inner Mongolia, this study employed the propensity matching score method, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, Logistic regression model, OLS regression, and moderation effect analysis to measure the participation level of farmers and herders in the REDD+ mechanism and to analyze the factors influencing their participation willingness. Furthermore, it discussed the impact mechanism of farmers and herders’ participation on the area of land retired from farming. The results indicated that increasing the level of funding support under REDD+ had a positive effect on expanding the retired farmland area of farming and herding households, with significant differences in participation levels among different farmers and herders. Both age and the proportion of farmland with slopes above 25° had positive effects on the participation of farmers and herders and retired farmland area. In contrast, engagement in agricultural management activities and the farthest distance of farmland from highways had negative effects on both. Village cadres and pioneers of demonstrators in land retirement positively influenced others’ willingness to participate, while education level exerted a suppressive effect. These findings provide empirical evidence for the REDD+ mechanism to reveal the connections and regularities among the environment, economy, and residents’ well-being, and offer path options for formulations of national REDD+ action strategies. Accordingly, due emphasis should be placed on the critical role of farmers and herders in emission reduction and carbon sink enhancement actions, improving their participation mechanisms and refining the subsequent industrial system of REDD+, so as to better serve the national “dual carbon” strategy and the broader goal of high-quality development.

     

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