突发重大动物疫情事件网络舆情主题演化特征以“非洲猪瘟”为例

The Evolution Characteristics of Network Public Opinion Themes in Sudden Major Animal Epidemic Events: Take “African Swine fever” as an Example

  • 摘要: 研究突发重大动物疫情事件网络舆情主题演化特征,可为舆情识别与治理工作提供决策参考。以中国非洲猪瘟疫情事件为例,爬取微博数据,基于LDA模型挖掘网络舆情主题,探究主题内容和主题热度演化特征。研究发现:(1)中国非洲猪瘟疫情事件网络舆情大致经历了起始、爆发、波动和长尾四个阶段。(2)起始阶段舆情主题主要是猪肉食用安全、疫情发生情况及处置措施,舆情管理重点是肃清舆论传播环境;爆发阶段舆情主题主要是猪肉食用安全和猪肉价格,舆情管理重点是稳定社会秩序;波动阶段舆情主题主要是疫情发生情况、疫苗研发、生猪养殖业发展、猪肉价格,舆情管理重点是增进公众对政府的信心和信任;长尾阶段舆情主题主要是猪肉价格、生猪产能恢复、疫苗研发进展,舆情管理重点是及时回应公众关切。(3)与疫情本身发展态势相关的主题是热度平缓型主题,与食品安全相关的主题是热度下降型主题,与疫情防控相关的主题是热度波动型主题。

     

    Abstract: The research on the evolution characteristics of network public opinion theme of sudden major animal epidemic events can provide decision-making reference for public opinion identification and governance. Taking the African swine fever epidemic in China as an example, this paper crawled the data of Weibo, mined the theme of online public opinion based on latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) model, and explored the evolution characteristics of theme content and theme popularity. The findings were as follows: (1) The network public opinion of African swine fever epidemic events in China had roughly experienced four stages: initiation, outbreak, fluctuation, and long tail. (2) In the initial stage, the main themes of public opinion were pork food safety, the occurrence of the epidemic, and disposal measures, and the focus of public opinion management was to eliminate the communication environment of public opinion; the theme of public opinion in the outbreak stage was mainly pork food safety and pork price, and the focus of public opinion management was to stabilize social order; the theme of public opinion in the fluctuation stage was mainly epidemic situation, vaccine research and development, pig industry development, and pork price, and the focus of public opinion management was to enhance public confidence and trust in the government; the theme of public opinion in the long tail stage was mainly pork price, the recovery of pig productivity capacity, and progress in vaccine development, with the focus of public opinion management was to respond to public concerns in a timely manner. (3) The theme related to the development trend of the epidemic itself was a gentle theme, the theme related to food safety was a declining theme, and the theme related to epidemic prevention and control was a fluctuating theme.

     

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