河南省城镇化发展水平与水资源利用水平耦合协调及障碍因素研究

Research on the Coupling Coordination and Constraint Factors between Urbanization Development Level and Water Resource Utilization Level in Henan Province

  • 摘要: 为探究河南省城镇化发展与水资源利用的协调发展路径,本文以2008—2024年为研究期,构建城镇化发展与水资源利用综合评价指标体系,运用熵权法、灰色关联度迭代模型、耦合协调度模型与障碍度模型,系统分析两系统发展水平、耦合协调关系时序与空间演变特征,并精准识别制约发展的关键因素。结果表明:河南省城镇化发展水平整体呈现稳步上升的趋势,水资源利用水平呈阶段性波动的特征。耦合协调度经历了从失调到协调、从勉强协调到良好协调的演进过程,空间上耦合协调度整体提升,最终形成“良好协调局部集聚、中级协调全域覆盖”的格局。障碍因素随发展阶段持续转换:前期粗放工业用水为核心约束,后期人口集聚引发生活用水压力;水资源禀赋短板长期存在,叠加极端水文波动,系统气候韧性偏弱。基于此,从公共服务提质与空间调控、水资源市场化配置与集约利用、区域差异化协同治理、气候适应性管理四方面提出优化建议,助力河南省城镇化发展与水资源利用的高质量协调发展。

     

    Abstract: To explore the coordinated development path between urbanization and water resource utilization in Henan Province, this paper constructed a comprehensive evaluation index system for urbanization development and water resource utilization over the study period from 2008 to 2024. Employing the entropy weight method, grey relational degree iterative model, coupling coordination degree model, and obstacle degree model, the study systematically analyzed the development levels of the two systems, the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of their coupling coordination relationship, and precisely identified the key factors constraining development. The results showed that the overall urbanization development level of Henan Province had exhibited a steady upward trend, while the water resource utilization showed characteristics of periodic fluctuation. The coupling coordination degree had evolved from imbalance to coordination, and further from barely coordinated to well-coordinated. Spatially, the overall coordination level had improved, ultimately forming a pattern of “local agglomeration of good coordination and full coverage of moderate coordination”. The constraint factors shifted continuously with development stages: in the early stage, extensive industrial water use served as the core constraint, while in the later stage, population concentration gave rise to domestic water pressure; the inherent deficiency in water resource endowment persists, and coupled with extreme hydrological fluctuations, the system exhibited relatively weak climate resilience. Based on these findings, optimization recommendations are proposed from four aspects: improvement of public services and spatial regulation, market-based allocation and intensive use of water resources, regionally differentiated synergistic governance, and climate-adaptive management, to facilitate the high-quality coordinated development of urbanization and water resource utilization in Henan Province.

     

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